Emini S&P / Dow Mini Results 11/23/2009
We anticipated low volume this week coming into the Thanksgiving holiday. However we have a lot of economic numbers, so I decided I would trade today and tomorrow and take the rest of the week off. The Emini markets had decent volume today and I knew we had a housing report at 10, so I figured it should be an easy one and done day!
I was wrong… and I was right ! Let me explain.
We did have 2 trades that made a one and done. The first EET, and Pullback trades we’re both one and done days. I actually was so focused on the NSE that I had my SuperDom on top of another chart and missed the EET winner as I really figured the market was coming down from being in “NO Nse Zone”. I really love taking the NSE’s after No Zone as they win – A LOT!
Unfortunately we never had the NSE signal! So I missed the EET. I tried to get filled on the pullback, but I was a little slow and it hit my exit price by the time I moved my entry! So I had to cancel out that trade! Kudos to my students who grabbed their one and dones!
The NSE that never happened put us right back in No NSE Zone – so there was very little for me to do waiting on the report! On top of that I had 2 “one on one” students calls and a doctor’s appointment in the afternoon!! So I must admit, I was a bit stressed as I really wanted to recover BEFORE I left so I could relax the rest of the day.
Well too bad for me – that didn’t happen!
I ended up taking 5 straight LOSING TRADES! (-4, -5, -4, -6, -4) – DOWN 23 TICKS on the Emini S&P about 6 points including commissions! Well you know what? Drawdowns happen! Our trading system is a very good one and for the most part we are done long before 10 am, so if I have a bad day now and again – that’s life.. right?
Well I was very determined to recover (and I did) – but let’s move on with my trades.
I had a NSE on my dow Emini strategy in the middle of my 4th and 5th loser. That dow Emini trade I made 38 ticks off of that. Technically I was in pretty good shape. However I am in a very unique position ! I claim that I can make 1 point a day in the SP Emini Markets – not in 2 different markets! Although I missed 2 one and done trades, I was very motivated to recover.
I finally catch a NO ZONE – so I take the EET (Early Entry Technique) as I know the NSE that follows “No Zone” is normally a strong one. I was right – I make 7 ticks and I leave and go to the doctors.
While I was gone, we had another NO Zone – and the EET and NSE that followed we’re both good for 8+ ticks! I missed that and to be honest I was a bit frustrated. I love those trades and that was a good one.
Well It was after 3 PM when I got back so I didn’t have a lot of time to day trade. I took a valid NSE that had strong conviction, I followed the trend and one of my trade filters went short after I had about 6 ticks profit. So I stayed in the NSE longer and grabbed 11 ticks. I immediately entered another position, a pullback trade as my trading filter was still “on” (for lack of a better term) – I made another 4 ticks. NOW we are getting somewhere.
We catch another valid NSE Long this time and I get that for 8 more ticks – just before the closing bell.
Add it all up, deduct commissions and on the ES I am up just over 1 point – WOW. Add in the 38 Dow Tick and I am up $240 per contract for the day. Not a bad day! In fact it was an AWESOME DAY – it just took ALL DAY LONG.
Folks, I never once claimed that day trading is easy. In fact I tell anyone who calls me that its TOUGH. You must follow the rules or you will fail.
I get criticized all the time about a day like today. I know I’ll get an email from this blog that will say “Well Dave, I think its just not worth it to have a drawdown of 6 points only to make 1 point profit…”. I am ok with that. My trading system may not be for you, and I wish you all the best in your trading endeavors.
However, let’s look at the facts: YES – it was an ALL day trading day today. Can’t argue that, but you know what? My account balance is UP today –not down. Let’s look at the fact that 78 – 80 percent of the time, I am done by 10 AM – that is well documented. So if I have a day that I have to trade all day once in awhile – it’s ok. As long as my trading account is going up – all is well. Let’s not include the dow trade in there as well!
Lastly, let’s talk about risk/reward. I get a lot of “heat” about this too. I clearly state that on my NSE trade that I am looking for a 4 – 8 tick target with a 8 tick stop loss. If you do simple math it’s hard to make money, I get that.
Here’s the facts (again): First, we SELDOM lose 8 ticks on a NSE trade, Second, on our losing trades – we average about 4 -5 ticks of a loss. WE also move our stop loss to entry after 4 ticks profit. We also have a 75% win rate on our VALID NSE trades. Add in the “coming out of NO NSE ZONE” and the NSE trade is over 83 % winners.
So is the risk reward all that bad? You tell me.
One more last comment, than I promise I will jump off my little soap box. Lately I’ve been doing all my intro-videos on a real trading account. I figured why not show the public real trades with real money. I thought it was a great idea, and I do get a lot of positive feedback. I also get a lot of negative feedback because I am only trading small contracts.
Why is that?
Give me the opportunity to explain.
I do “really” trade more than 1 contract. In fact I trade over 20 contracts. When I am in my Live Trading Room I am trading live with my students calling out my trades. I make my point or so and I am done trading. I then use another trading account that I set up just for doing videos and I trade AGAIN and make another point per day and I post those videos on the blog.
Why don’t I trade more than 1 or 2 contracts? Because I already made my money for the day! Also, my system normally outperforms the first hour of the day. It then gets slow and sloppy and I normally do NOT want to trade after the first hour unless I need to recover. So when I am doing these videos, I am doing them at the not-so-best time to trade, so I don’t put a lot of money out there. Not to mention the greed factor.
I also want people to realize that you should NEVER trade big contracts (or any contracts for that matter) until you KNOW what you are doing inside and out!
The point here is that I am showing you REAL trades on REAL money. And I do so after I’ve traded my account and I am done in my trading room. Who else out there shows real trading ????
Ask anyone of my students if I truly try to help them. I do. I work very hard with my students as I sincerely want them to succeed. I am one of the good guys here people. I am not here to rob you of your hard earned money! I truly do my best to teach my system to everyone who wants to learn.
About 6 weeks ago, we sent out forms to all of our students. Over 83% said they were making money and happy with my system.
Ok – I am done. If you have ANY QUESTIONS – feel free to call me at 904-823-1950. If I don’t answer, please realize I am on the phone with students most of the day, so please leave your name and number and I will call you back.
Below is a video of a Dow Emini Trade. It’s a “real trade” on a real trading account… I hope the small contracts don’t bother you all that much 🙂
If you have any questions about my trading system – just ask!!
Email me here.
David Marsh
